Economy.- The IMF raises its forecast for growth in Europe, but questions the long-term sustainability of the rebound

Christine Lagarde has revised up its growth projections for the advanced economies

Economic growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast of real economic growth for Europe by five tenths in 2017, up to 2.4%, compared to the 1.9% estimated last April, and has also reviewed two-tenths of a second hires its forecast for 2018, up to 2.1%. At the same time, it has maintained the 1.9% expansion estimated for 2019 unchanged.

Similarly, the body chaired by Christine Lagarde has revised up its growth projections for the advanced economies of the Old Continent and the eurozone to place them at the same pace of expansion for the current year and the next two years. Thus, it forecasts that they will grow to 2.1% this year, to 1.9% in 2018 and to 1.7% in 2019.

The emerging economies of Europe, on the other hand, will grow in a more “robust” way, since the IMF points out that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of these regions will grow by 3.1% in 2017, 2.6% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

Europe’s economic recovery is strengthening and expanding in an “appreciable” way, which is why, as the international organization has stressed, it has decided to make “big upward revisions”.

“The European recovery is spreading to the rest of the world, contributing significantly to global growth, and in some advanced economies and in many emerging economies, unemployment rates have returned to pre-crisis levels,” the document said.




However, the IMF notes that in many parts of Europe, wage growth is “slow” despite the decline in unemployment and, while the risks seem more balanced in the short term, they are still tilted down in the medium term. Thus, although it predicts that the recovery may finally be “stronger” than projected in the short term, the sustainability of the rebound is still in question.

“In the long term, adverse demographic trends and low productivity are likely to slow growth, and the outlook is also subject to a number of important internal and external risks,” says the IMF. Therefore, it believes that policymakers should take advantage of current favorable conditions to rebuild fiscal reserves and improve the economy’s ability to grow and absorb shocks.

In this regard, he believes that the reduction of public deficits is one of the main tasks on which many economies should focus, and warns those governments with a high debt of the particular importance of this, given the foreseeable future scenario of interest rates. higher interest. Here it situates several advanced economies such as Spain, Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal or the United Kingdom, which have high rates of public debt and very limited fiscal spaces.

With regard to countries with stronger fiscal positions, he advises that they use the fiscal space available to raise growth potential and support structural reforms. It also advocates that structural policies “revitalize” convergence, which ensures that it has slowed down after the crisis.

In particular, the IMF recommends advanced economies to progress more rapidly in the implementation of structural reforms that increase productivity growth, making product markets more competitive and improving labor markets, as well as prioritizing investment in education and training.

As for the “legacies of the crisis”, as the monetary institution qualifies the countries that still carry the aftermath of the recession, it considers it necessary to prioritize the clean-up of the balance sheets of its weakest banks.

In this regard, the IMF points out that in advanced Europe, non-performing loans (NPLs) have been reduced by approximately 160,000 million euros – especially in households – since their peak in 2003. 2014- Lips Tokyo check my blog. However, it warns that the total stock is still high, reaching just under 1 trillion euros. Spain and Ireland account for much of the reduction in this type of loans, while the recent sales rebound of NPL in Italy is “encouraging”.




In general, the IMF considers it essential to strengthen the capacity of the European Union to adapt and, in particular, in the eurozone, to the ‘shocks’. As he points out, this requires completing the unions in the banking and capital markets, and building fiscal support to provide a macroeconomic stabilization mechanism.

At the same time, he believes it is necessary to act on banks that still present themselves as “problematic” and strictly apply the common fiscal rules. It also points out that reforms should focus on strong competition policies, lower trade barriers and redistributive fiscal policies that expand opportunities.

He further argues that public officials should be selected and promoted in their job by their own merit, and asserts that freedom of information and transparency about the performance of governments, the use of public resources or interests are guaranteed. financial

Plenary.- The DPZ puts the Cooperation Fund for works and services at the disposal of the municipalities

The plenary session of the Provincial Council of Zaragoza

The plenary session of the Provincial Council of Zaragoza 

The plenary session of the Provincial Council of Zaragoza (DPZ) has unanimously approved this Wednesday the regulations of the Cooperation Fund, a tool with which it will make economic resources available to the municipalities so that they can attend to works and services.

Speaking to the media, moments before presiding over the plenary session of the corporation, the president of the DPZ, Juan Antonio Sánchez Quero, explained that the Cooperation Fund served before 2008 so that the municipalities with treasury problems “requested a kind of loan “to the institution charged to this box.

However, “since 2008 has fallen into disuse,” as the County Council began to advance “around 66 or 75 percent” of the subsidies granted in each plan to each location and no longer requested resources from the Cooperation Fund.

A treasury operation that is what is usually done in this case with banking entities

A treasury operation that is what is usually done in this case with banking entities


“We intend to revitalize it so that municipalities that have problems of treasury or works that have not been able to finish are lent the money that is necessary” through a “credit operation”, detailed Sánchez Quero.

Three modalities have been established to require resources from this Cooperation Fund. In the first place, short-term operations may be carried out, for a maximum amount of 30,000 euros that will have to be repaid in a year and “it would be a treasury operation that is what is usually done in this case with banking entities”.

In the medium term “it would be up to ten years to return” the amounts granted, “with two years of grace” and may request up to 150,000 euros; while the long-term operations “would be extraordinary and would be fixed in the bases of execution of the budget of each year of the institution.

In this way, long-term credit operations will include loans for the financing of investments, for the refinancing of other credit operations, mandated loans for the remediation of negative cash surplus or for the financing of new or higher expenditures by current operations declared necessary and urgent. If you want title loans, you may Get up to $30,000 for your vehicle.


Sánchez Quero has warned that in order to access these resources, the municipalities must have approved the liquidation of the previous year’s budget with a “positive” result and must have approved the budget for the current year. In all cases, the interest will be “zero percent”.

“We have a budget in the Cooperation Fund of 200,000 euros that will be very short,” the president of the DPZ estimated, adding that when visiting municipalities “it hurts to see works started as swimming pools, social centers or pavilions that do not they can end because they do not have money “and the objective of this tool is precisely that” when a municipality has problems or tension of treasury can go to the DPZ and request up to a maximum of 150,000 euros. ”

He pointed out that once this Cooperation Fund is put in place, “we will see what needs the town councils have and more funds will be available to serve the municipalities.” In any case, he warned that the provincial institution “is not going to be a bank either,” but “the important thing is for the municipalities to know that the DPZ is going to solve these treasury problems” because “we can not allow There are municipalities that cannot provide services or cannot finish works because they do not have funds available. ”



On the other hand, the plenary session has approved the new regulation that regulates its legal advisory service, “which contemplates how councils and the institution itself can access this service with both legal reports and assistance in trials.”

The legal advice of the Diputación de Zaragoza is the service responsible for the representation and defense in a court of the institution. It also has the legal advice of the corporation, without prejudice to the mandatory advice that falls within the competence of the General Secretariat.

In addition, the DPZ, through this legal advice service, assists the city councils of the province, especially those with lower economic capacity and management.